By Olatunde Dodondawa
President Donald Trump’s hopes of winning a second term are, well, slim, according to reports. Which, for Republicans, puts even more pressure on the ongoing fight to keep control of the Senate and, thereby, avoid total Democratic control come 2021.
Most neutral political handicappers see Republicans on the losing end of this fight.
“While the fight for the Senate is more competitive than the presidential race, Democrats are most likely to net 4-6 seats and gain control,” concluded Inside Elections in their last pre-election issue. (Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win the majority if Joe Biden is elected and four seats if Trump is reelected.)
“Our estimate of gains remains anywhere from 2 to 7 seats for Democrats, and it’s only that lowest possible number in the range that would mean Republicans eke out saving their majority,” wrote Cook Political Report Senate Editor Jessica Taylor on October 29.
“Overall, Democrats are favored to win the Senate, but their odds of winning the White House are better,” wrote Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball.
Republican-held seats in Colorado and Arizona seem lost. Maine’s Susan Collins (R) and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis (R) are both slight underdogs heading into Election Day. The Iowa race between Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and Theresa Greenfield (D) seems like the purest toss-up on the board. Both Georgia races as well as Montana, South Carolina and Kansas are also considered competitive.
Democrats are likely to lose only one seat: Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D) seems headed for defeat.
If the presidential race isn’t close and that’s a possibility, turn your eye to the battle for the Senate majority. It’s close and it’s hugely important.
Unlike President Donald Trump, who has a very narrow set of paths to get to 270 electoral votes, Joe Biden has a slew of ways to get to that magic number.
Start with the 203 electoral votes that are regarded as solidly in Biden’s camp. Then give him Nevada (6 electoral votes) and Colorado (9) where demographics are trending hard away from Trump’s version of conservatism. That’s 218 electoral votes.
Now move the traditional Democratic states in the upper Midwest, Minnesota (10), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10) for Biden. While Trump carried Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016, and came close in Minnesota, there’s little data that suggests he might repeat that feat on Tuesday. Which brings us to Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes. If Biden wins the state where he was born, that’s 274 electoral votes, and the White House.
Such a scenario would allow Biden to lose Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Iowa and Ohio and still be elected president.
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